The Reality of Death Rates and the Impact of COVID-19 in the USA

Claims about the USA's normal daily death rate being 7,700 and the total COVID-19 deaths being 97 often misrepresent the complex reality of public health data. It is crucial to consider the latest and most accurate numbers to understand the true impact of the pandemic.

Debunking Misleading Claims

Some argue that the USA's death rate during the pandemic is being exaggerated by using outdated statistics. As of September 15th, the actual number of COVID-19 deaths in the USA has surpassed 200,000. This number is significantly higher than the often-cited 97, which was based on early data. The previously stated claim of 7,700 daily deaths is also inaccurate, with the current daily death rate being more accurately estimated at around 6,600.

Understanding the Data

Let's break down the numbers further. In 2017, the annual death rate in the USA was 730 per 100,000 population. Given a national population of approximately 330 million, this translates to a daily death rate of around 6,600. The death rate in 2018 had even dropped to 723 per 100,000, further supporting the current death rate of roughly 6,600 being a more accurate figure.

Current Pandemic Data and Trends

Recent trends suggest that the USA has seen a significant spike in deaths, particularly in the northeast region. However, as of now, the weekly death rate from the CDC appears to be returning to a more seasonal pattern. It's important to note that the latest 2-week data may not be complete, as the CDC sometimes lacks full data sets.

Impact of Re-Categorization

The re-categorization of many deaths from other causes to COVID-19 is influencing public health policies. However, it is worth noting that the total death count has not increased significantly. For instance, the total deaths attributed to flu and pneumonia from the same CDC site consistently range between 5 to 10. Therefore, the specific number of 97 for COVID-19 deaths is not considered excessive.

Economic and Public Health Considerations

The extreme social distancing measures, while necessary in certain stages of the pandemic, have come at a considerable cost. The economic impact of a 2.3 trillion dollar shutdown is significant, and it is estimated that these measures have saved only around 5,000-8,000 lives. The cost-benefit analysis indicates that an extra $38 million is spent for each life saved during the initial phases.

Given the current stage of the pandemic curve, the public health measures have already saved lives, and the economic benefits of re-opening sooner rather than later must be considered. There is a risk that the negative impacts of unemployment and economic distress could lead to more deaths in the long term. This risk underscores the need for a balanced approach to public health measures.

Conclusion

The USA has experienced a significant toll from the pandemic, but the data and trends indicate a more nuanced picture than often portrayed. It is essential to remain informed with the latest and most accurate data to make informed decisions about public health and economic strategies.