Can Trump Coerce William Beach to Falsify Unemployment Figures?

While the idea of a former President coercing employees to falsify government statistics might seem far-fetched, it is essential to understand the context and implications of manipulating such figures. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has a long history of adjustments and changes in how it calculates and reports employment and unemployment data. These changes can significantly impact the narrative about the economy, as we have seen under various administrations.

Historical Context of Manipulating Statistics

The postulation that the current administration might falsify statistics from the BLS is not a new concept. Documents from the Reagan era and the influential economic website ShadowStats, managed by John Williams, reveal how minor changes in what is counted and what is ignored can lead to a false narrative. John Williams has extensively documented how these changes have affected economic reporting over a generation.

I blogged about this issue in 2013, highlighting the subtle ways in which the BLS has adjusted its counts. As a result, we no longer have a reliable metric for what 'low unemployment figures' truly mean. For example, we are currently at statistically zero unemployment, but this figure no longer accurately reflects the gig economy, where individuals frequently work multiple jobs, many of them off the books.

Motivation and Capability of Trump Administration

It is crucial to understand that the current administration may have more leverage and incentives to manipulate BLS statistics. Given the lack of historical context for many employees, it is possible that they may not fully understand the standard procedures. Without this knowledge, they could become more susceptible to manipulation.

The perceived need for favorable employment numbers can motivate such actions. Trump and his team have consistently emphasized the importance of low unemployment figures in terms of economic success. It is likely that they have the capability to manipulate these numbers, as evidenced by the lack of any significant pushback or scrutiny against previous administrations' statistics.

Implications and Possible Scenarios

If such manipulation were to occur, it would not be unprecedented. Every president since the beginning of these reports has emphasized the importance of the unemployment report. The argument can be made that many in the administration might be willing to lie to achieve this goal.

William Beach, an economist and shareholder of the Cato Institute, has been vocal on this topic. He argues that it is more about a false narrative than actual falsification. For instance, unemployed individuals may not receive unemployment benefits indefinitely. They can 'fall off the unemployment report' if they are not actively seeking employment. This can be used to create an illusion of a more robust labor market.

Have There Been Any Attempts to Manipulate?

There is substantial doubt about any attempts to manipulate the current administration's statistics. Trump and his team have often criticized President Obama's numbers, painting them as 'phony.' However, no one has reported whispers of similar suspicions about the current administration. This silence raises questions about the integrity of the current system.

The implications of such manipulation are severe. If the jobless or underemployed reports are the true measure of the economy, they paint a different picture. Many in the current administration may be aware of this and are willing to lie by telling the truth to achieve political goals.

Conclusion

While the specificity of who could be involved and what actions might be taken is debatable, the historical context of BLS adjustments and the potential for manipulation in the current administration suggest that the possibility cannot be entirely disregarded. It is crucial for policymakers, economists, and the public to remain vigilant and questioning of any reported employment and unemployment figures.

The key is to maintain a sense of skepticism and a commitment to transparent, accurate data to ensure informed decision-making and a realistic understanding of the economic landscape.