Introduction

The 2024 presidential race is heating up, with Governor Gavin Newsom of California making waves as a potential candidate. This article explores whether Newsom has a credible chance at becoming the next president, taking into account his political history, electoral strategy, and odds of victory in a Democratic primary.

Newsom's 2028 Plans

It is widely speculated that Newsom will run for president in 2028. This deftly sidesteps some of the current political controversies and leverages his time in office to establish a stronger national presence. However, the years between now and then will be crucial in shaping his political image and policy platform.

California's Democratic Lean

California, with its large and diverse population, is reliably Democratic. It is widely assumed that Newsom is a shoe-in for the 2024 Democratic nomination because of internal party rules that prevent a candidate from running for both the presidency and their state’s presidential primary in the same year. This rule shields Newsom from the challenge of competing against his own state’s voters in a primary.

Political Delegation and Primary Basics

The Democratic National Committee allocates delegates based on state and congressional district votes. In the 2024 cycle, Newsom would be unlikely to win a large number of delegates as he did in 2020, due in part to the intense rivalry with Kamala Harris. Additionally, other states that have a significant influence on the primary, like Pennsylvania, could see Newsom as a divisive figure and allocate delegates accordingly.

Electability and Public Perception

The real question is whether Newsom can win the general election in November. His actions and policies in California have made him a polarizing figure. Many argue that his

Polarizing Reputation

Newsom’s tenure in California has been marred by numerous public health crises, high taxes, and state budgetary issues. Critics often point to the state as an example of excessive liberal policies and cite high costs of living, which could potentially hurt his electability at the national level.

Charisma and Political Strengths

Despite the challenges, Newsom does have several strong attributes that could help his campaign. His charismatic personality, eloquence, and deep political experience are undoubtedly assets. He can project a confident and energetic image that many voters find compelling. However, these strengths alone are not enough to overcome the negative perception of California and its policies, which resonate strongly with many Americans.

Comparison with Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris, the current Vice President, is the key alternative to Newsom. As a national figure and the incumbent Vice President, she has a strong claim to the Democratic nomination. Her national office provides her with a platform to address a wide range of issues and gain support from across the country. Additionally, her fundraising capabilities and fundraising network could give her an edge in the campaign.

Conclusion

The path to the 2024 presidency is not straightforward for Gavin Newsom. While he could theoretically win the nomination, the combination of California’s predictable Democratic lean, the political dynamics within the party, and the looming national challenges pose significant hurdles for him. Newsom would need to significantly shift the conversation around his leadership and management of California, rebranding himself as a more centrist and electable candidate. Otherwise, the Democratic primary might favor Kamala Harris or other national figures who have better national credentials and appeal.