Who Controls Gaza Now That Hamas Has Lost Power?

The question of governance in Gaza, following Hamas' loss of power, is becoming increasingly pressing. The scenario post a ceasefire is a daunting one, as Israel has made it abundantly clear that it will not accept a scenario where Hamas or any other militant groups return to power. This creates a critical need for a transitional government in Gaza that is not associated with Hamas or other militant factions.

Israel's ASSERTED Interest in Finding a New Governor

While a ceasefire is reached, the immediate concern is who will manage Gaza in the aftermath of Hamas. Israel is particularly keen on ensuring that Gaza does not once again become a sanctuary for militant groups.

The Palestinian Authority's Prospects

From a distance, one might argue that the Palestinian Authority (PA) could be a viable candidate for this role. Historically, the PA has been a problematic organization, marked by corruption and instability. Yet, it offers a relatively more predictable alternative to Hamas, as they rarely launch attacks and avoid sparking further conflict. However, the PA's legitimacy is severely compromised in the West Bank, where it is seen as a tool of Israeli interests.

PA's Viability in Gaza

Proposing the PA to govern Gaza might provide some stability, but it also risks exacerbating tensions, as the population may see them as mere puppets of Israel. This situation raises fundamental questions about the ability of the PA to maintain stability, especially in the face of potential militant outbursts. The PA's corruption and frailty could act as a catalyst for the emergence of new militant groups in Gaza.

SPECULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS

In an ideal world, regional countries might work together to form a new government in Gaza. Such a government would be less likely to be viewed as a proxy for Israeli interests and could potentially gain legitimacy. However, the reality is far more complex and pessimistic.

The Snake in the Grass: Regional Hesitation and Reluctance

Confronting the possibility of a Palestinian insurgency, regional Islamic countries are wary. The memory of other countries hosting large numbers of Palestinian refugees is still vivid. Stability in Gaza is appealing, but the long-term costs of military intervention are too high.

Saudi Arabia: A Potential Compromised Actor

While Saudi Arabia might benefit in the short term from stability in the region, its population is largely pro-Palestinian. Involvement in a potential conflict in Gaza could lead to significant backlash and loss of popular support. The potential risks to their own stability outweigh the potential gains.

CONCLUSION AND FINAL PREDICTIONS

Ultimately, the governance of Gaza remains an enigmatic issue. As in most conflicts, definitive answers are hard to come by. It is likely that the status quo will continue, with a waiting game for a solution to this complex and tangled situation.

Who knows?