Is Harvey the New Normal: Reevaluating Flood Risks in Eastern Texas

The catastrophic flooding caused by Hurricane Harvey in 2017 has sparked intense discussions about the future of flood management in Texas and the broader United States. When considering the frequency of destructive hurricanes labeled as rare events, it's time to reassess.

Understanding the Scale of the Disaster

When comparing the 2017 flooding in Houston to previous storm events, one cannot help but wonder whether the city is prepared adequately for such a deluge. The city's infrastructure installed in the 1940s was initially designed to handle much lower rainfall levels. According to Nasal, it could only manage an average of 2 cm of rain even after the water receded. This suggests a significant gap in infrastructure preparedness.

Furthermore, the frequency of such extreme events is becoming increasingly concerning. Recent hurricanes like Katrina and Ike, all classified as 100-500 year events, occur within a span of just 12 years. This raises serious questions about the validity of these once-in-a-century statistics.

Decoding the '100-Year' Event Myth

Many experts now argue that the current statistics used to categorize rare weather events are dangerously flawed. Critics of the “100-year” or “500-year” event label suggest that these metrics may need revision. It makes more sense to treat such events as part of the natural variation in the region, rather than a one-off anomaly.

Historical accounts from the mid-1800s reveal that the Texas coastal plain was often flooded even before modernization. This suggests that the area has experienced flooding even without the modern impervious cover. The flooding is not limited to central Houston; the surrounding areas also face similar risks.

Implications for Future Development and Insurance

The insurance industry is quick to recognize and adjust to these flood risks. Homeowner insurance policies do not cover damage from such events, which implies a level of risk that many property owners may find unacceptable. This absence of coverage highlights the potential financial burden on individuals and communities.

Moreover, the pattern of hurricane tracks is also a critical factor. Harvey's slow-moving nature contributed to the massive flood. While there are discussions about the impact of global warming on hurricane frequency, there is less promise of more hurricanes with slower tracks or those likely to hug the beach.

Adapting to Future Risks

Given the current understanding, it would be wise to assume that such flooding events are becoming more normal. To mitigate future risks, it is essential to rebuild with the consideration that this land will flood again within the lifetime of the structures. Elevating buildings and reinforcing those on the coast with concrete and steel frames can offer some protection.

For businesses in high-risk areas, it is crucial to assess and manage the unusual risks involved. Profit margins need to cover these risks or businesses need to consider relocating. The ultimate goal is to create more resilient communities capable of withstanding such natural disasters.

In conclusion, the flood risk in Houston and Texas as a whole may be evolving into a more frequent phenomenon. As a society, it's imperative to reevaluate our infrastructure, insurance policies, and urban planning to address these new realities.