Realistic Chances of Bernie Sanders Winning the Democratic Nomination

Yes, Hillary was not there to steal it like last time, but let's face reality: Bernie Sanders is unlikely to win the Democratic nomination in 2020. This article provides a deep dive into the political dynamics and challenges Bernie faces in achieving his goal.

The Reality of Bernie Sanders' Campaign

The Democratic Party, especially the Democratic National Committee (DNC), is not above manipulating the system to ensure their favored candidate succeeds. In 2016, the DNC's actions were instrumental in Hillary Clinton's nomination over Bernie Sanders. Despite Sanders' strong showing in the primary, the DNC did not support him. It was a clear case of the party prioritizing their favored candidate over the popular choice.

Bernie Sanders, a self-proclaimed "democratic socialist," has faced stiff opposition from both the establishment Democrats and independent voters who see him as a tool for stirring up trouble and embarrassment. While he has a passionate base, the party's pragmatism often takes precedence over ideology. This is exemplified by the way Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) uses her influence to align with the party on key issues.

The Black Swan Theory

To realistically picture Bernie Sanders winning the nomination, a black swan event would have to occur. A black swan event is defined as a highly improbable event with a major impact. For Bernie, such an event could be:

Biden's Death or Major Scandal: If Biden were to suddenly die or confront a scandal that renders him unelectable, Sanders would have a fighting chance. However, it's unlikely that another candidate would enter the race once the primary calendar has closed. Virtual Convention: Due to the coronavirus pandemic, the convention in 2020 is more likely to be virtual, which presents new opportunities for Sanders to make a strong statement. Even then, victory remains improbable. Delegates' Influence: Sanders could still leverage his delegate support to influence party rules and the platform, but this is a distant consolation compared to actually winning the nomination.

What's Next for the Democratic Party

The Coronacrisis has completely overshadowed the nomination process. With primaries being canceled or postponed, the Democratic Party faces significant challenges. The incumbent president, Donald Trump, continues to be a prominent figure, likely giving him an advantage in terms of name recognition.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that some candidates have suspended their campaigns rather than dropping out entirely. This strategic decision might give Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg opportunities, but it's uncertain how these dynamics will play out.

Ultimately, the party's focus on electability over ideological purity means that Sanders faces significant obstacles, especially given the current political climate and the constraints posed by a major pandemic.