The Cost of Super Heavy Booster and Starship: A Detailed Analysis

SpaceX's ambitious projects include the development of the Super Heavy launch booster and the Starship spacecraft. Since the inception of these projects, there has been considerable interest in understanding the associated costs. This article delves into the current estimations and long-term targets for the cost of a fully configured Super Heavy booster and Starship, exploring their performance requirements, construction costs, development expenses, and fleet cost analysis. By examining these aspects, we aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of the financial burden associated with these cutting-edge space technologies.

Performance Requirements and Characteristics

A critical aspect of any rocket system is its performance characteristics. SpaceX's Super Heavy booster and Starship are designed to meet specific performance requirements, ensuring they can achieve the necessary velocities to reach desired orbitals.

Starship Characteristics: Payload: 100 tons Inert Structure Weight: 120 tons Propellant: 1200 tons (310 t LNG, 890 t LOX) Total Stage Weight: 1420 tons Empty Stage Weight: 220 tons

The Starship is designed to impart a delta-v (velocity change) of 6.9 km/sec. Understanding how much energy the engines need to achieve this and the overall weight of the stage is crucial.

Super Heavy Performance Calculations

The Super Heavy booster is the first stage of the Super Heavy Starship configuration. The calculations for its performance are as follows:

Heavy Performance Calculations: Payload: 1420 tons Inert Structure Weight: 322.2 tons (0.0845 * 3815.2) Propellant: 2068.6 tons (0.5422 * 3815.2) - 533.1 t LNG, 1535.5 t LOX Total Take-Off Weight: 3815.2 tons Empty Heavy Weight: 322.2 tons

These calculations highlight the significant resources and infrastructure required for the Super Heavy booster, including the propellant and structure fractions. Understanding these fractions is crucial for accurate cost estimations.

Construction Costs and Development Expansions

The construction cost for a Super Heavy booster and Starship is a significant expense, with SpaceX's current estimate being approximately $2400 per kilogram. This cost is notably lower than other vendors and even below the cost of building airplanes. Given the required materials, the construction costs are assessed as follows:

Construction Cost: Starship: 120 t * 2.5 million/t 300 million Heavy Booster: 322.2 t * 2.5 million/t 805.5 million Total Estimated Cost: 300 million 805.5 million 1105.5 million

Further, the development cost for the flight hardware is typically five times the unit cost. According to Elon Musk, the estimated development cost for the program is approximately $5.53 billion, including test articles.

Fleet Cost and Operational Analysis

SpaceX's vision is to enable reusable rockets, significantly reducing the cost of space launches. The Super Heavy and Starship are designed to fly back to Earth for refilling and reuse, significantly reducing cycle times.

Based on the current estimates, a fleet of four Starships and 16 Starships would be required to keep one Heavy booster busy for comprehensive space operations. The cycle times for both the booster and Starship are estimated to be as follows:

Heavy Booster Cycle Time: 1-2 hours Starship Cycle Time: 1-2 days to 2 weeks

Considering these cycle times, the total fleet cost can be calculated as $5.611 billion, bringing the total program cost to approximately $11.14 billion.

Propellant Costs and Cost per Flight

Propellant is a critical component in the overall cost of a space mission. The Starship requires a substantial amount of fuel, including Jet-C (LNG) and Liquid Oxygen (LOX).

Propellant Costs: LNG: 310 t * 185/t 155,973.50 LOX: 890 t * 40/t 97,020.00 Total Per Flight Cost: 155,973.50 97,020.00 252,993.50

The total cost per flight is calculated as $633,326.50, which aligns with Elon Musk's target of $700,000 per launch.

Value of the Fleet and Return on Investment

Assuming a fleet of two Super Heavy boosters and 16 Starships, the operation can achieve a high number of launches per year. Under these conditions, the fleet can transport approximately 694,547 people per year, generating significant revenue.

Value of the Fleet and ROI: Annual Revenue: 347,273,500,000 Net Present Value: $31.49 billion over 14 years Return on Investment: 30.4% ROI on the original investment

The operation has a market cap nearly triple the cost of the vehicle development and fleet buildout, showcasing the potential commercial viability of these space technologies.

Conclusion:

The cost of a Super Heavy booster and Starship is significant but aligns with SpaceX's vision of making space access more affordable through reusability and economies of scale. The detailed analysis presented here underscores the critical factors influencing these costs, from performance requirements to operational cycles and development expenses. As SpaceX continues to refine its operations, these costs are expected to continue to decline, further boosting the prospects of space commercialization.