The Decision of NASA: Was Choosing SpaceX for the Commercial Crew Program a Mistake?

When NASA decided to partner with SpaceX over Blue Origin for its Commercial Crew Program, the decision was based on a meticulous evaluation of the capabilities and track records of both companies. This decision has been widely debated, with many questioning whether it was a mistake. Let's delve into why NASA made this choice and the capabilities of the companies involved.

Reviewing the Companies' Track Records

NASA's choice was not made lightly. Both SpaceX and Blue Origin have unique strengths and challenges. Here, we will compare their records in key areas relevant to the Commercial Crew Program.

Rockets into Orbit

Blue Origin has not yet achieved the milestone of sending its New Shepard rocket into orbit. While New Shepard has conducted successful suborbital flights, delivering passengers to the edge of space, it has not demonstrated the capability to reach orbital altitudes. This is a critical factor in the Commercial Crew Program's requirements.

Human-Rated Orbit Capsules

Blue Origin is focused on developing its suborbital capabilities, and currently, they do not have a human-rated capsule designed for orbital missions. The New Shepard vehicle, while innovative, is geared towards suborbital flights. In contrast, SpaceX has already proven its capability with the Dragon capsule, which has been successfully used for crewed missions to the International Space Station (ISS).

Missions Delivering Payloads to Orbit

Blue Origin has not yet conducted any orbital missions to deliver payloads. The focus of their New Glenn rocket, which remains untethered, is not yet clear and has yet to make its first orbital flight. SpaceX, on the other hand, has a robust history of delivering payloads into orbit with the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets. These rockets have been crucial in NASA's programs and have shown consistent performance.

The Well-Documented Record of SpaceX

SpaceX stands out with a proven track record in the aerospace industry. The Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets have consistently delivered payloads into orbit, including critical missions to the ISS and commercial satellite launches. Their success in delivering satellites and crewed missions has been well-documented.

The Dragon capsule, human-rated and mission-tested, has been an integral part of NASA's Commercial Crew Program. SpaceX's ability to transport astronauts to and from the ISS underscores their reliability and experience. SpaceX's success with the Dragon capsule and its numerous completed missions makes them a trusted partner for NASA's Commercial Crew Program.

Conclusion

Given the critical nature of the Commercial Crew Program, NASA's decision to choose SpaceX over Blue Origin is well-founded. SpaceX's proven capabilities in launching rockets, delivering payloads into orbit, and safely transporting humans to the ISS justify their selection as a reliable partner. The track record and experience of SpaceX clearly outweigh the current limitations of Blue Origin in the context of NASA's objectives.

While it's understandable to question decisions made by large organizations, in this case, the decision was based on extensive evaluation and a clear understanding of the capabilities and limitations of both companies. NASA’s preference for programs that deliver on time and under budget, as seen with the SLS/Starliner program, further underscores SpaceX's value as a partner for the Commercial Crew Program.