The Future of Universal Basic Income in the UK: Is It Plausible or Just a Theory?

As the UK grapples with ongoing economic challenges, the concept of Universal Basic Income (UBI) continues to garner interest. However, the current conservative capitalist framework and the limited scope of existing UBI trials suggest that a full-scale implementation in the UK is highly unlikely for now. This article explores the feasibility and implications of UBI in the UK, drawing on current economic theories and practical considerations.

Current Challenges and Conservative Framework

The UK's existing social welfare framework, combined with its strong conservative capitalistic tradition, poses significant barriers to the implementation of UBI. The country is currently experiencing stagflation, a combination of high inflation and stagnant economic growth, which adds to economic uncertainties. Instead of embarking on an expensive experiment like UBI, the UK government is focused on addressing these pressing issues. At the moment, there is limited room for experimenting with costly new policies.

UBI: A Theoretical Superiority and Practical Limitations

While UBI theoretically offers a more equitable social welfare system, assessing benefits on an "on/off" basis, its practical implementation faces numerous challenges. Advocates argue that UBI can ensure that jobless individuals do not lose motivation or income. However, the devil is indeed in the details. For example, it can provide financial support to part-time workers, students, and entrepreneurs who might want to take time off for education or starting a business.

Practical Considerations and Cost Analysis

Despite its theoretical merits, UBI faces significant practical and economic challenges. For instance, providing a basic income of ￡5000 per year to every household would require substantial tax increases. The government would need to raise taxes by ￡5000 per household, plus additional funds for civil servants and IT infrastructure. This approach merely creates more government jobs and IT contracts, achieving little else. Alternatively, only half of the UK's households might pay extra taxes, receiving ￡5000 back and contributing ￡5000 to fund those who would not pay anything.

Theoretical and Practical Predictions

While the current economic policies and structures make UBI unlikely, theoretical considerations suggest that UBI may become necessary in the future, especially as automation and AI continue to reshape the job market. Automation and AI are expected to lead to significant job losses, leaving many people without steady employment. This could result in a broader impact on society, including crime rates and social norms. If 25% of the population lacks employment and income prospects, crime rates could soar, and the production of goods and services would become unsustainable if people cannot afford to buy them.

Exploring Future Options

Given these potential issues, a sensible approach would be for the UK government to explore alternative options to address the future job market and employment challenges. Four-day workweeks and UBI are among the suggested solutions. While these options may or may not work, it is essential to test them and consider other ideas to proactively address the potential labor market changes.

In conclusion, while the UK is not currently inclined to implement UBI, the concept remains a viable discussion point. As economic and technological trends evolve, a renewed focus on UBI might be warranted, particularly as automation and job displacement become more prominent issues.