The Great Emigration Debate: How Many Hong Kong Citizens Will Leave for Good?

When discussing the potential emigration of Hong Kong citizens, one can't help but appreciate the unintended double entendre in the question. It is unquestionable that the emigration of Hong Kong citizens would be beneficial for the city if it leads to its improvement. However, the number of those who will actually leave is uncertain and multifaceted.

Factors Influencing Emigration

Several factors need to be considered when estimating the number of Hong Kong citizens who will leave:

Eligibility for Emigration

Clarification is needed regarding the number of individuals eligible under the UK’s BNO (British National (Overseas)) scheme. The figure has been debated, with some estimates suggesting around 300,000 and others claiming nearly 3 million.
Keyword: BNO scheme

Actual Emigration Intentions

There are approximately 10,000 Hong Kong residents currently studying or working in Australia on visas. In addition, there are around 2,500 individuals outside Australia with visas, along with 1,250 pending applications for visa. These individuals may be given a 5-year extension to meet residency requirements for citizenship.
Keyword: Hong Kong emigration

Return Potential

Canada is interested in increasing its immigration from Hong Kong but has not yet adjusted its immigration requirements. Nevertheless, history has shown that not all those who had the opportunity to leave Hong Kong in 1997 took that chance, and many returned after obtaining their foreign passports.
Keyword: immigration policies

Arguments Against Emigration

Some argue that Hong Kongers have high standards for their quality of life and would not leave for better living conditions elsewhere. It is claimed that they are among the highest-income per capita in the world and would not want to leave under any circumstances. However, this view may be skewed as historical data, such as the German Jews in 1933, show that people often leave under adverse conditions for better opportunities.

Referring to statistics from the UK and the Five Eyes alliance, it is projected that no more than 10% of the Hong Kong population might decide to leave. The UK expects around 200,000 Hong Kongers to leave, and if we include Taiwan, the total is still under 10% of Hong Kong's population. I myself, with a business degree and good English, am not confident about securing a job in a foreign country without any special skills or connections.

Conclusion

The debate on Hong Kong emigration is complex and multifaceted. While the emigration of some Hong Kong citizens is inevitable, the actual number is hard to predict. Factors such as eligibility, actual intentions, and the potential return rate all contribute to the overall uncertainties. In conclusion, while the emigration debate continues, it remains to be seen how many Hong Kong citizens will leave and for how long.