Why Does the Iranian Army (Artesh) Avoid Coup Attempts Against the Regime?

The Iranian Army, commonly referred to as the Artesh, has been the subject of much speculation regarding potential coup d'état activities aimed at toppling the current regime. Many have raised questions about whether the Artesh might plan to overthrow the Mullahs and deal with the Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia. However, the Artesh's actions and strategies are rooted in intricate socio-political considerations and practical limitations. This article delves into the reasons behind the Artesh's reluctance to initiate such a high-risk operation.

People as the Counterweight

The Iranian military is waiting for the people to rally behind it. The belief is that if the people support the Army, it could be a powerful tool for change. However, this strategy is fraught with dangers. The Iranian security services are well-prepared to deal with any potential betrayal of the people towards the military. This caution is justified given the government's history of maintaining tight control over the populace and its security apparatus.

Nationalism, Religion, and Loyalty

The Iranian military, like any national armed force, places a significant emphasis on nationalism, religion, and loyalty to their oaths. These values are deeply ingrained in their ethos. The notion that the Artesh might want to overthrow the current regime seems somewhat incongruent with these principles. Nationalists within the Army are more concerned with preserving the nation's sovereignty and integrity rather than staging a coup.

The Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and Economic Incentives

The Artesh does not have the resources to fund a coup or carry out any significant military operations without foreign assistance. Moreover, the officers in the Artesh are obligated to serve in the IRGC if they are seconded there. This is often seen as a career advancement opportunity and a path to economic gain. Once integrated into the IRGC, officers undergo radicalization to strengthen their loyalty to the Islamic regime, including its leaders such as the Ayatollah and Mullahs.

Artesh officers who serve in the IRGC are thoroughly indoctrinated and their loyalty to the regime is cemented over time. This makes the prospect of a successful counter-coup by the IRGC a serious deterrent to any Artesh-initiated coup. Furthermore, senior members of the IRGC have been integrated into the Artesh's leadership, further compounding the difficulties for a coup attempt without external support.

Government Preparedness and Countermeasures

The current government is well-aware of the potential for a coup. It has taken specific actions to prevent such scenarios, including strengthening the IRGC and intertwining their leadership structures. The person in charge of the Artesh used to be the head of the IRGC, indicating the close collaboration and shared loyalty between these two military branches. These measures are designed to ensure that any potential threat from the Artesh is met with a strong and unified response from the IRGC.

Conclusion: The Upcoming Revolution and Potential Involvement of the Artesh

While the Iranian military remains cautious and wary of any internal uprisings, it is not immune to change. As the general sentiment against the regime continues to grow, there is a possibility that the Artesh may eventually become more involved in any revolutionary activities. However, as of now, the primary goal of the Artesh appears to be maintaining its position and alliances within the existing power structure, rather than attempting a coup.

The Iranian military's approach to political change is complex and nuanced. It seeks to navigate the treacherous waters of internal politics while maintaining the loyalty and support of its rank and file. As the country faces increasing turmoil, the Artesh's role in any future changes will be closely watched and analyzed by scholars, analysts, and concerned citizens alike.