Would Trump Support Universal Basic Income?

No, Trump would not support Universal Basic Income (UBI) as he views it as the 'stupidest idea possible,' particularly given the significant increase in the deficit it would entail. Here is a detailed examination of why UBI is unlikely to gain support from President Trump:

Current Political Stance

Trump's campaign emphasized returning American jobs, and supporting UBI could be seen as a departure from this key promise to his supporters. However, let's consider the possible scenarios:

Scenario Analysis

1. Unable to Return Jobs: If Trump cannot return jobs, will he still consider supporting a UBI program? The answer remains a resounding no.

Financial Realities

The funding for a UBI program can come from two sources: resources and taxes.

Resources

The U.S. may be wealthy, but generating sufficient wealth to fund a UBI program is challenging. Alaska, for example, has successfully implemented a smaller UBI model using oil revenue. Mark Zuckerberg also suggests that the U.S. should learn from Alaska's program.

Mark Zuckerberg: The U.S. Should Learn from This State's Basic Income Program

Taxes

A variety of taxes could be imposed to generate funds for UBI. Critics argue that while this may be feasible without significantly harming business growth, Trump, a pro-business president, would likely oppose increasing taxes, which could alienate his supporters who believe he promised to return jobs.

Corporate Implications

An increase in taxes would be unappealing to businesses, and Trump's supporters would likely feel cheated if he supported UBI despite his promise to return jobs. Even if UBI could be made feasible, the lack of support from his base would be a significant hurdle.

Work Incentive Concerns

One of the primary critiques of UBI is that it might remove the incentive for people to work. However, recent pilot programs in Finland, India, and Canada have shown that UBI can actually improve living standards and the economic growth of small businesses.

Universal Basic Income: UBI Pilot Programs Around the World

While these examples suggest that UBI could be beneficial, critics argue that unforeseen consequences may arise in a larger, more complex country like the U.S. Before implementation, these issues need to be addressed.

Slow Implementation

Given the complexity and potential risks, it is more likely that UBI will start on a small scale. For example, Hawaii has shown interest in implementing a UBI program. This gradual approach would help identify potential issues and build support before a full-scale implementation.

Hawaii Becomes the First State to Pass a Bill in Support of Universal Basic Income

In conclusion, unless UBI proves to work well and gain strong public support, it is unlikely that President Trump will support such a program.