Would You Rather Have a Prime Justin Verlander or a Prime Clayton Kershaw?

The eternal debate in baseball circles is whether a baseball fan should prefer the peak performance of Clayton Kershaw over the later career excellence of Justin Verlander. Both are among the greatest pitchers of our time, each leaving an indelible mark on baseball history.

The Peak Performance Debate

I initially believed that Clayton Kershaw had been the superior pitcher in terms of peak performance, but Justin Verlander's later career has made the choice a closer one. Verlander's 77.7 career WAR (Wins Above Replacement) places him in the same league as legends like Curt Schilling and Tom Glavine. Meanwhile, Kershaw is not far behind with 75.9 career WAR. Considering that Kershaw is five years younger than Verlander, there's a strong chance he could surpass Verlander's career WAR, potentially reaching 100 and joining the pantheon of Randy Johnson and Warren Spahn.

Is Kershaw or Verlander the Better Pitcher?

While Kershaw has an excellent ERA of 2.20 since 2011, significantly better than Verlander's 3.09 ERA, this is just one metric among many. When we look at other statistics like ERA (which adjusts ERA for the league environment and context), we see that Kershaw stands out far more. Since 2011, the three pitchers with the lowest ERA after throwing 1000 innings are Kershaw (2.20), Jacob deGrom (2.65), and Johnny Cueto (2.95). Justin Verlander’s ERA of 132 is the lowest among these, tied with Greg Maddux, Sandy Koufax, Dizzy Dean, and Roy Halladay.

The Numbers Speak: Kershaw vs. Verlander

At first glance, it might seem as if Verlander has the edge. However, a deeper dive into statistics reveals that Kershaw has consistently outperformed Verlander. For instance, in terms of Contextual Fielding Independent Pitching (cFIP), which takes fielding-independent pitching to the next level by adding context, Kershaw's scores consistently fall on the super side of great, while Verlander's scores are more middling. In the 2014 season, for example, Kershaw's cFIP was 88, indicating peak performance, while Verlander's was 105, closer to average.

Physical Health and Career Longevity

While Kershaw’s back issues are a significant concern, he has worked diligently to mitigate these through strengthening his core. This proactive approach has helped him bounce back and maintain his status as one of the best pitchers on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kershaw remains a top-tier starter, even if he’s not the absolute best on the team at any given moment.

In contrast, Verlander, who is five years older, has never faced a serious injury. His longevity and consistent performance suggest that he might continue to be a formidable presence in the Major Leagues for years to come.

Ultimately, the choice between Kershaw and Verlander comes down to personal preference and specific team needs. Kershaw's peak performances are undeniable, and his age and injury history might make him a perception risk. Verlander, despite being a few years older, has consistently provided top flight pitching and has avoided serious health issues.

The debate continues to be a fascinating one, and fans and analysts alike will continue to weigh the past performances and future potential of these two legendary pitchers.