The GOP's Attempted Coup: Will Another Failed Recall Elect Gavin Newsom or Lead to a Further Embarrassment?

The recall election for California Governor Gavin Newsom did not go as planned for the Republican Party. They spent millions pursuing what they believed would be a significant victory, only to end up with a bigger embarrassment to their cause. The question now is: If Gavin Newsom wins the recall election, will Republicans have wasted millions of dollars or would they be happy to spend that money to have another failed recall election just to embarrass Newsom?

Republicans and the Recall Election

They wasted millions of dollars and embarrassed themselves. The recall campaign against Gavin Newsom was nothing short of a political fiasco. However, the real question remains: Will the GOP be willing to repeat this mistake?

Why a Second Failed Recall Would Embarrass the GOP Even More

The recall would be a bigger embarrassment to the GOP. The Republican Party just does not understand how Californian voters work. They chose a trans woman, expecting her to be a shoe-in, but little did they know about politics. Then they selected a conspiracy theory enthusiast for their candidate, a talk show host who happens to be African American. It is not just about skin color; Californians have moved past such superficial considerations. Democratic voters are not above recalling their own leaders when necessary. In 2003, when Grey Davis failed to address the Enron scandal, Democrats rallied to vote for Arnold Schwarzenegger twice.

Political Feasibility and the Need for Change

Newsom did much more than survive the recall; it was a spanking! Over 64% of voters said ‘No’ to the recall. Right-wing Republicans and Libertarians need to realize they are a small minority, always out of power here. They do not care that the recall cost over $270 million. They will try to unseat Newsom in the general election, which won't work for them because their candidates won't survive the primary. It is much more likely that Newsom will face another Democrat in the general election.

Problems within the Republican Party

Another Democrat is indeed the most probable outcome. Californian Democrats have a primary system where every candidate for the same office appears on the same ballot, except for President. The top two candidates move on to the general election. Unfortunately, Republicans are weak and do not always make it out of the primary. The recall will ultimately confirm this.

While the recall on Californian Governor Gavin Newsom ended up being characterized as an attempted coup by "Trump-supporting Republicans," the only reason for the recall’s success was because a significant number of Newsom voters were initially very unhappy with how he handled the COVID-19 pandemic. Once it became clear that the Republican candidate, Larry Elder, would replace Newsom, these voters uniformly rejected the recall. Thus, the recall pettition cannot be blamed solely on Republicans. Newsom is to blame for the successful petition, just as he can take credit for restoring confidence in his ability to govern California.

The California recall election is a stark reminder of the political dynamics at play. It highlights the need for the Republican Party to understand and adapt to the changing political landscape in California, or face continued embarrassment and further electoral setbacks.